For 13 years, the Syrian rebels failed. How the Assad Regime Was Overcome in 13 Days

The Syrian army lacked friends, were underequipped, and had low morale. The rebels seized the opportunity because they knew it was theirs.

New Delhi: Despite 13 years of fighting, the Syrian rebels were unable to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's government. The Assad family's five-decade dominance was then wiped out in a lightning onslaught that lasted less than 13 days, forcing the president to leave the nation. Careful preparation, the shifting Middle Eastern power dynamics, and the unspoken support of a significant regional actor all contributed to the rebels' startling advance.


The MomentThe Assad regime was at its weakest, and the rebels knew it. The Syrian president has repressed any opposition to his government during the last ten years by using the military might of its main allies, Iran and Russia. However, Tehran was engaged in combat with Israel, while Moscow was preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine. Damascus was completely exposed as Assad's supporters were diverted. Additionally, Tel Aviv killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah and a number of other commanders, severely harming Hezbollah, which was instrumental in Assad's campaign against the rebels.Hezbollah nursed its wounds and declined to fight Assad's battle with rebels after a ceasefire struck Lebanon on November 27. Syria was dealing with internal problems as well. According to a source who spoke to news agency Reuters, widespread corruption and looting had left tanks and aircraft without gasoline. Many Syrians fled to Lebanon because they did not want to fight their fellow citizens, according to those Syrians who celebrated the overthrow of the Assad regime. As a result, the Syrian military lacked allies, were underequipped, and had low morale. The rebels seized the opportunity because they knew it was theirs.

The Role of Turkey

At a conference in Bahrain, Turkey's deputy foreign minister, Nuh Yilmaz, claimed that Ankara was not responsible for the offensive and did not provide its approval as the Assad regime fell. It was worried about instability, he added.

However, a signal from Turkey would not have allowed the rebels to proceed. According to two sources who spoke to Reuters, the rebels warned Ankara about six months ago that they intended to launch a significant attack and believed they had its implicit agreement. Although it views Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel alliance's primary force, as a terrorist organization, Turkey has long supported the Syrian opposition carried out with Turkey's approval.
The Interests of Ankara


Turkey has seen a surge in refugees as a result of the Syrian conflict, which has also become a domestic problem. It has long called for a political solution to the issue from the once-close friend Bashar al-Assad regime, but has received little reaction. This was viewed as a vulnerability by Damascus, which demanded that Turkish forces leave Syria entirely. Ankara did not have this choice because it was concerned that it might result in an additional refugee flood. The final straw was then pulled by Moscow. "Too soon" for discussions between Ankara and Damascus, Russia's special envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, referred to Turkey as a "occupying force" in Syria.
The rebels believed that Damascus' rejection of their outreach was a sign that the Recep Tayyip Erdogan administration was not pleased. Following the failure of Ankara's attempts to engage Assad, the rebels showed Turkey specifics of the plans, a Syrian opposition source told Reuters. "Try ours; that other path hasn't worked for years," was the message. Don't interfere; you don't need to do anything."
Turkey has cause for relief as the regime changes in Damascus. In addition to helping it crush the opposition from organizations like the YPG, with whom it has been at odds for years, its tacit support for the rebels may open the door for border peace.

Turkey currently anticipates that a peaceful Syria will foster an environment that will allow refugees to return. However, there is a chance that Ankara would face yet another refugee catastrophe if the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime triggers a new phase of unrest.